Friday, March 16, 2007

NCAA Tourney 07 Picks and the "Scientific Method"

Ok, first I need to explain how I came to these picks. About...12 years ago, I entered my first informal NCAA bracket contest using this method, and I won the thing. Since then, I have had varying levels of success, but it always amounts to much fun (and unusualy teams to pull for). The method is this: First, make a bracket with the picks that I "really think will win" (like most folks make brackets). Second, I have a bit of fun and pick only the teams I want to win, regardless of how realistic the picks are (so lots of underdogs in the Final Four, etc.). Third, I make picks based on my primative (and not very scientific...) "dice game", which involves me raning the teams on a "power ranking" of 1 (very weak teams) to 6 (the top 2 seeds in each bracket), and everywhere in between, then roll the dice...and the farther apart the two teams' PRs are, the harder for the "little guy" to win. For example, if a 1 plays a 6, the only way the 1 can win is if I roll an 11. If two 4s play, I just take one dice for one team, the other for the other, and whoever has the highest roll wins (since they are "equal"). Later in life (yes, occasionally I still play "dice game", old college friends...), I would realize how this method is not that accurate, and would expand the game to using SIX dice... but for this traditional NCAA pick game, I go old school... Finally, I simply add up how many wins each team has for each bracket, give them that "score", and just go head-to-head (with the tiebreaker being "who I really think would win"). So, if Texas has a 9 and North Carolina an 8, no matter whow much I would normally pick UNC, Texas gets the nod. This method just allows for lots of fun upsets and unexpected "runs", and we all know that the "bracket that makes sense" almost never wins...

Ok, now the picks! I realize the first day of games has played, but I PROMISE no results have been changed...in fact, since I travelled yesterday, I know very few of the results from yesterday...

First Round Winners: Florida, Arizona, Butler, Maryland, Winthrop, Oregon, UNLV, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Southern Illinois, Duke, Pitt, Gonzaga, UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan St., USC, Texas, George Washington, Washington St., Texas Tech, Georgetown, Ohio St., Xavier, Long Beach St., Virginia, Louisville, Texas A&M, Creighton, Memphis

Second Round Winners: Florida, Maryland, Oregon, Wisconsin, Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pitt, UCLA, North Carolina, Texas, George Washington, Georgetown, Ohio St., Virginia, Texas A&M, Memphis

Sweet Sixteen Winners: Maryland, Wisconsin, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, Ohio St., Texas A&M

Elite Eight Winners: Wisconsin, UCLA, Texas, Ohio St.

Final Four Winners: Wisconsin, Texas

And the Champion is... Wisconsin

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